Bitcoin Reserves 2026: Regulation and Strategies

Bitcoin by 2026: How Global Regulation Will Change the Game for Investors

Introduction

This article analyzes key regulatory changes in crypto-asset markets during the 2024–2026 period and their impact on investment strategies. The objective of this research is to provide investors with a practical guide to risk management in an environment of tightening global oversight.

The analysis methodology is based on a study of official regulatory and legal acts, draft laws, and public statements from regulators in key jurisdictions: the European Union, the United States, and Russia. The analysis is presented in the form of scenarios with assigned probabilities based on current legislative and political trends.

Research Scope & Limitations

• Timeframe: The forecast covers the period through the end of 2026. The regulatory environment may change more rapidly under the influence of unforeseen events.
• Key Assumptions: The analysis assumes the absence of global "black swans" (e.g., large-scale geopolitical conflicts or systemic failures in key blockchains) that could fundamentally alter the regulatory trajectory.
• Sources of Error: Probability assessments represent the author's expert judgment based on open data and may not reflect the full picture due to the confidential nature of discussions within regulatory bodies.
• Conflict of Interest: The author has no financial or other interest in promoting any specific platforms or assets mentioned in the article.

Analysis of Regulatory Scenarios by Jurisdiction (2024–2026)

European Union: Implementation of the MiCA Regulation

Starting in 2024, the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) Regulation comes into force in the EU. Provisions regarding stablecoins apply from June 30, 2024, and general rules for Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) from December 30, 2024.

• Scenario Analysis:
  • Base Case Scenario (60% probability): With the implementation of current MiCA plans, a significant portion of VASPs operating in the EU market must obtain licenses by 2026. The market will become more transparent, but unlicensed platforms and non-custodial wallets will face restrictions when interacting with regulated services.
  • Favorable Scenario (20%): The licensing process will proceed quickly, and regulators will adopt a flexible stance, attracting new projects and institutional capital to the EU, strengthening its status as a leading crypto jurisdiction.
  • Adverse Scenario (20%): National regulators will interpret MiCA norms differently, creating market fragmentation. Strict requirements and high costs will lead to some small and medium-sized VASPs exiting the market.

United States: Search for Legislative Certainty

The regulatory environment in the U.S. is characterized by a conflict of approaches between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

• Scenario Analysis:
  • Base Case Scenario (60%): Regulation will continue to be shaped through judicial precedents (as seen in the SEC v. Ripple and SEC v. Coinbase cases). Uncertainty will persist, but major players will adapt to SEC requirements similar to those for broker-dealers.
  • Favorable Scenario (20%): Congress will pass comprehensive legislation, such as the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (H.R.4763), which will clearly delineate the powers of the SEC and CFTC. This will create a predictable environment and act as a catalyst for institutional investment inflows.
  • Adverse Scenario (20%): Geopolitical factors or a major market crash will lead to a hardening of the regulators' position and the introduction of restrictive measures that slow down innovation.

Russia: Course Toward Isolation and State Control

Regulation in the Russian Federation is developing within the framework of Federal Law No. 259 "On Digital Financial Assets," which prohibits the use of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment.

• Scenario Analysis:
  • Base Case Scenario (70%): The rollout of the digital ruble (CBDC) will be completed. Operations with foreign crypto exchanges through the Russian banking system will be restricted to the maximum extent. A law legalizing mining (Bill No. 237585-8) will be passed, requiring miners to sell assets through authorized Russian platforms.
  • Favorable Scenario (10%): Under the influence of external economic factors, a softer regulatory regime for cross-border crypto operations will be created to attract capital.
  • Adverse Scenario (20%): A total ban on the circulation of cryptocurrencies for private individuals will be introduced, with the exception of the digital ruble, accompanied by administrative or criminal liability.

Practical Risk Management Strategy

1. Asset Diversification and Storage

• Capital Allocation Principle: The recommended share of liquid funds on centralized exchanges (CEX) depends on the investment strategy and should be established individually. For most investors, a range of 10–30% is optimal, but this requires calculation based on the investment horizon, expected volatility, and the need for quick liquidity.
• Storage Tools:
  • Hardware Wallets (Ledger, Trezor): The standard for long-term storage of the bulk of assets by private investors. They provide full control over private keys.
  • Multisig Wallets and MPC Solutions: Suitable for joint asset management or enhanced security, requiring multiple keys to authorize a transaction.
  • Institutional Custodians (Coinbase Custody, BitGo): A solution for large investors and funds, offering insurance and regulatory compliance.
• Platform Diversification: Do not store more than 50% of exchange-based assets on a single platform. This reduces the risk of loss in the event of a hack, bankruptcy, or the blocking of a specific exchange.

2. Compliance and AML/KYC Hygiene

• Counterparty Verification: When working with over-the-counter (OTC) and peer-to-peer (P2P) platforms, perform AML checks on the sender's address using specialized services (e.g., Crystal, Chainalysis). Avoid addresses associated with mixers, OFAC-sanctioned entities, and darknet markets.
• Compliance with the "Travel Rule": The FATF recommendation requires VASPs to exchange data on transaction participants for amounts exceeding $1000/€1000. Anonymous transfers between exchanges for such amounts are becoming impossible.
• Documentation of Operations: Keep records of all transactions. Be prepared to provide the exchange or bank with documents confirming the Source of Funds and Source of Wealth.

3. Analysis of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Risks

The DeFi sector carries unique technological risks. Use the following metrics to evaluate protocols:

Risk	Evaluation metrics	Incident example
Smart contract	Number and reputation of auditors (Trail of Bits, OpenZeppelin), existence of a bug bounty program, protocol uptime without incidents.	Ronin Network bridge hack (March 2022); losses exceeded $620M due to a vulnerability in the multisig scheme.
Centralization	Degree of team control over the protocol (admin keys), governance model (DAO vs. centralized), team token allocation.	–
Price oracle	Use of decentralized oracle networks (Chainlink), availability of backup data sources.	Oracle manipulation on the Mango Markets platform (October 2022), leading to losses of $112M.
Economic	Total Value Locked (TVL), sustainability of tokenomics, protection mechanisms against cascading liquidations.	–

4. Key Tax and Legal Aspects by Jurisdiction

• EU: The MiCA regulation does not harmonize taxation. Investors are required to follow national laws. For example, in Germany, profits from the sale of crypto-assets held for more than one year are tax-exempt. Consultation with a local tax specialist is recommended.
• USA: The IRS treats cryptocurrencies as property. Every transaction (sale, exchange) is a taxable event. Investors are required to report gains and losses.
• Russia: Income from cryptocurrency operations is subject to Personal Income Tax (PIT) (13–15%). Taxpayers are required to calculate and declare income independently. Official clarifications from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation confirm this position.

Investor Checklist and Action Plan

Scenario	Action plan
1. Strict Regulation in the EU (MiCA)	1) Audit VASPs: Ensure that the exchanges and services used plan to obtain a MiCA license. 2) Prepare documents: Complete full verification (KYC) in advance and prepare source of funds documentation. 3) Rebalance portfolio: Move assets from unlicensed platforms to regulated ones or non-custodial wallets.
2. Regulation via U.S. Courts	1) Track altcoin status: Monitor SEC decisions regarding the classification of assets as securities and reduce positions in high-risk assets. 2) Choose jurisdiction: Use VASPs that have a clear legal position and licenses to operate in the U.S. 3) Maintain tax records: Thoroughly document all transactions for IRS reporting.
3. Crypto Market Isolation in Russia	1) Diversify storage: Keep the bulk of assets in hardware wallets that cannot be blocked. 2) Use foreign accounts: For interaction with global exchanges, consider using bank accounts in friendly jurisdictions. 3) Comply with legislation: Declare income from cryptocurrency operations in accordance with Federal Tax Service requirements.

Conclusion

By 2026, global regulation will become an integral part of investment strategy in the crypto market. Success will depend not on finding ways to bypass the rules, but on skillful adaptation to them.

Key principles for the investor:

1. Personal Responsibility for Compliance: Mastering basic AML check tools and maintaining transaction records are becoming mandatory skills.
2. Prioritizing Security over Yield: Secure asset storage and diversification across jurisdictions and platforms are moving to the forefront.
3. Transparency as an Advantage: Investors capable of proving the legal origin of their funds will gain access to regulated products and ensure the long-term safety of their capital.

Sources and Update Date

Article current as of October 2024.

1. Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 (MiCA):
   EUR-Lex (Accessed: 20.10.2024)
2. Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (H.R.4763):
   Congress.gov (Accessed: 20.10.2024)
3. Federal Law of 31.07.2020 No. 259-FZ "On Digital Financial Assets...":
   Official Internet Portal of Legal Information (Accessed: 20.10.2024)
4. Bill No. 237585-8 "On Mining in the Russian Federation":
   Legislative Activity Support System (Accessed: 20.10.2024)
5. FATF Guidance for Virtual Assets and VASPs:
   FATF-GAFI.org (Accessed: 20.10.2024)
6. OFAC Sanctions List:
   U.S. Department of the Treasury (Accessed: 20.10.2024)
7. Letter of the Ministry of Finance of Russia dated 20.05.2022 No. 03-04-05/46881 (on taxation of income from cryptocurrency operations):
   GARANT System (Accessed: 20.10.2024)