Quantum technologies: a threat to cryptographic security

Introduction

Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, have been positioned since their inception as one of the most secure financial instruments, providing reliable storage and transfer of assets. However, with the development of quantum computing, their unshakable reputation is beginning to be called into question. At the heart of the threat are quantum computers, which are potentially capable of breaking traditional cryptographic algorithms, such as ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm), leading to the theft of cryptocurrencies.

While the threat of quantum attacks remains hypothetical for now, the pace of technological development is forcing experts to consider the timeline for the first real risks. Furthermore, the lack of preparedness among many platforms and users adds additional concern. What specific threats do quantum technologies pose, how can they be minimized, and has the time for action truly arrived? Let's break this issue down in detail.

How Cryptographic Protection Works and Why the Threat is Realistic

Today's cryptocurrency security is based on the concept of asymmetric cryptography, where public and private keys are linked, but calculating the private key from the public key is impossible with existing computing power. For Bitcoin and a number of other cryptocurrencies, the ECDSA algorithm plays a key role, ensuring the integrity of digital signatures and guaranteeing transactional security.

Nevertheless, quantum computers are capable of significantly shifting this balance. Shor's algorithm, developed in 1994, theoretically allows quantum computers to solve the discrete logarithm problem, which lies at the foundation of cryptocurrency algorithms. The practical application of this theory means that a private key could be calculated from known public key data in a relatively short amount of time.

It has already been established that the greatest danger is posed by wallets whose public keys are published on the blockchain in advance. This situation is typical for some older addresses, including, likely, the addresses of Satoshi Nakamoto. Additionally, quantum attacks could hypothetically jeopardize any systems based on vulnerable cryptography if they are not adapted to quantum-resistant standards in time.

From Theory to Practice: Examples, Figures, Timelines

While quantum computers currently remain unfinished and expensive experimental systems, leading corporations—such as Google, IBM, and the Chinese company Baidu—are actively investing in their development. In 2019, Google announced it had achieved "quantum supremacy," and subsequent years have seen rapid growth in the computing capabilities of quantum systems.

Experts highlight several stages of potential threat:

1. Initial experiments with cryptographic cracking could begin within the next 5–10 years as the number of qubits increases and their error rates decrease.
2. Large-scale quantum attacks on cryptocurrency wallets are expected no earlier than 10–15 years from now, but preparation for them must begin long before then.
3. Development of quantum cryptography standards, initiated by organizations such as NIST (U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology), is already underway, but the industry will need time to adapt.

It is worth noting that there are currently no precedents for using quantum computers for real attacks on cryptocurrencies. However, experts such as Peter Shor, creator of the namesake algorithm, or Gavin Wood, co-founder of Ethereum, have repeatedly pointed out the need for preventive measures.

Who Is at the Highest Risk?

The danger of quantum attacks affects not only regular users but also major structures within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Among the most vulnerable groups are:

1. Long-term investors and early cryptocurrency adopters. Old wallets, where public key information is accessible on the blockchain, represent a "low-hanging fruit."
2. P2PK (Pay-to-Public-Key) wallets. These addresses are still in use and risk being compromised due to the lack of modern protection mechanisms.
3. Platforms and projects without quantum-resistant protocols. The industry as a whole is not prepared for a rapid transition to new cryptographic standards.

How to Protect Yourself? Best Practices

Protection against quantum threats is not just a matter of time, but of timely preparation. Here are several key steps that will help minimize risks:

1. Transitioning to quantum-resistant algorithms. Companies and developers are already working on creating new cryptographic standards. For example, NTRU and other post-quantum cryptography algorithms are being considered as potential solutions.
2. Using multi-signatures. The application of multi-signature addresses significantly complicates hacking attempts.
3. Isolating private keys. Store keys offline (in hardware wallets) to prevent them from entering the public space.
4. Monitoring the industry and updating software. Follow the recommendations of leading platforms and apply security updates in a timely manner.
5. Moving funds from legacy addresses. This is especially important for wallets using formats that are vulnerable to quantum attacks.

Conclusion

Quantum technologies are becoming a reality much faster than was anticipated even a decade ago. Although the full threat to cryptocurrency systems is still hypothetical, current research shows that users, asset custodians, and developers must be ready for inevitable changes.

Given the speed of technological progress, the crypto industry's adaptation to a quantum future is not a luxury but a vital necessity. The key to success lies in timely action: transitioning to quantum-resistant algorithms, staying informed about risks, and constant industry monitoring.

The time for preparation has already begun. There is no need to panic, but one cannot turn a blind eye to the new era that is already knocking at the door.